2012 Builder’s Forecast Breakfast Big Success

The 16th annual (or 17th?) John L. Scott Builder Breakfast was fun and informative. ‘Fun’ because the room was filled with real builders and developers. ‘Informative’ because of the optimistic, yet realistic appraisal of the past, present and future by Matthew Gardner of Gardner Economics. Some pertinent Gardner points include the following:

1. The private sector, not government, will lead us out of the recession;
2. There probably will not be a double dip recession, though, in Matthew’s words: “We are on a knife’s edge.”
3. Seattle metro’s employment growth appears to have momentum. See chart below comparing Seattle to Detroit, for example.
4. The 5 B’s will drive us back to economic health in our region, a. Boeing, b. Bytes, c. Benefactors, d. Batteries, and e. Biotech;
5. Upcoming lot shortages are real and will be felt by 2013, though many of the builders I know would suggest that lot shortages are already here;
6. Home prices are bouncing along the bottom, with modest price increases occurring in 2012 (maybe up 1.9 percent or so);
7. Renters are currently spending 5% more on their housing costs than homeowners!

Lennox concluded the meeting with an encouraging and uplifting message, and, somewhat to my astonishment, most everyone hung around for another half hour to chat and network. Terrific.